PERCEPTION OF DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND COVID-19 VACCINES: RESULTS OF AN ONLINE SURVEY

Made by the Telegram Channel https://t.me/MarCosent

Summary

The purpose of this study was to show the feasibility of an investigation on the perception of deaths from COVID-19 and from COVID-19 vaccines in the Italian population, following the example of similar surveys carried out in other countries. To this end, a questionnaire was prepared and distributed on some social platforms. Nearly 1,400 people participated in the survey. Participants reported COVID-19-related deaths in their family members in 4.9% of cases and COVID-19 vaccine-related deaths in 8.3% of cases. The sample of people who took part in this study, however relatively large, is not meant to be representative of the general population. The final data should therefore not necessarily be taken as a quantitative estimate of deaths associated with COVID-19 vaccines, but first of all as an indicator of a serious widespread concern regarding the safety of these products. National data on morbidity and mortality according to vaccination status should be systematically analyzed by the bodies institutionally responsible for the protection of public health and made publicly available, to allow independent and third-party analyzes and more generally a rigorous and transparent public discussion among experts without conflicts of interest.

Introduction and goals

How many deaths have been actually caused by COVID-19 and by COVID-19 vaccines is a question of crucial importance for anyone who would like to assess the aftual effetiveness of strategies implemented to control the "pandemic". At the moment it seems impossible to reach any shared conclusions and the debates on the subject are particularly heated, also due to the lack of complete, reliable and publicly accessible institutional data. Recently, approaches to the topic have been attempted through surveys on the opinion and perception that people have based on their experiences. In particular, in the United States the survey company Rasmussen Reports recently carried out a survey on a sample of 1,078 US citizens. We therefore set out to assess the feasibility of a similar research on an italian sample of people.

Methods

A questionnaire in Italian was prepared similar to the one used by Rasmussen Reports. Unlike them, who surveyed the opinions according to the political orientation of the participants, two optional questions were added in this study aimed at detecting any previous COVID-19 and vaccination status. The complete questionnaire in the form in which it was proposed to participants is available online. To complete the survey, access to Google was required, to limit the possibility of same persons completing the questionnaire multiple times. The questionnaire was disseminated and advertised via the Telegram Channel https://t.me/MarCosent. The Telegram post was published in a shareable form and was consequently spread by an unknown number of other profiles. The questionnaire was open from 20:00 on 31 March 2023 to 13:00 on 2 April 2023.

Statistic analysis

The answers were downloaded on a MS Excel sheet and analyzed in a descriptive way. For analysis purposes, the answers "no" and "don't know" were combined into a single category. Differences between continuous variables were assessed using the two-tailed Student's t-test, while differences between categorical variables were assessed using Fisher's exact test, with the observed significance level (P) set at 5% (0 .05). In any case, this value is only intended to discriminate between large correlations in the sample and does not imply any inferential significance. Statistical calculations were performed using GraphPad Prism version 8.0.0 for Windows, GraphPad Software, San Diego, CA, USA, www.graphpad.com.

Results

Participants

A total of 1,394 responses were provided. The characteristics of the participants as indicated by each of them are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1. Characteristics of the participants.

Notes: a: includes full cycle and full cycle plus additional dose(s); b: compared to a year ago; c: compared to the total; d: compared to the total of subgroup F or M. * = P<0.05 vs M.

Just over half of the participants are male, and males and females do not differ in age. Females have contracted COVID-19 to a greater extent than males (77.5% vs 70.7%), while males are vaccinated to a greater extent than females (19.1% vs 13.3%). Concern about SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 compared to a year ago is similar between males and females.

The characteristics of the participants were also analyzed with respect to having contracted COVID-19 and to vaccination status. The characteristics of participants according to previous occurrence of COVID-19 are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Characteristics of participants according to previous COVID-19.

Notes: a: includes full cycle and full cycle plus additional dose(s); b: compared to a year ago. * = P<0.05 vs “yes”.

Among those with previous COVID-19, females are in higher percentage (48.8% vs 39.5%) and age is lower, on average by more than 3.5 years (55.9 vs 52.3), while the difference in the percentage of vaccinated among those who have and have not contracted COVID-19 does not reach statistical significance (15.3% vs 19.8%, P = 0.056). Concern about SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 compared to a year ago is similar between those with and without previous COVID-19.

Characteristics with respect to vaccination status are shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Characteristics of participants according to vaccination status.

Notes: a: includes full cycle and plus additional dose(s); b: compared to a year ago. * = P<0.05 vs “no”.

Females are in a higher percentage among the unvaccinated (48.0% vs 37.7%). The difference in the percentage of those who contracted COVID-19 between unvaccinated and vaccinated does not reach statistical significance (75.1% vs 69.3%, P = 0.069). Concern about SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 decreased more among vaccinated than unvaccinated (58.8% vs 36.8%).

COVID-19 deaths

Overall, 68 participants (4.9% of the total) declare that one of their family members died due to COVID-19. The comparison between those who have and have not contracted COVID-19 is shown in Table 4, while the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated is shown in Table 5.

Table 4. Perception of deaths due to COVID-19 among family members according to previous COVID-19.

The difference in the frequency of perceived deaths from COVID-19 among family members between those with and without previous COVID-19 does not reach statistical significance (5.5% vs 3.1%, P = 0.086).

Table 5. Perception of deaths due to COVID-19 in unvaccinated and vaccinated (full cycle and full cycle plus boosters) participants.

The difference in the frequency of perceived deaths from COVID-19 among family members in vaccinated and unvaccinated participants does not reach statistical significance (4.7% vs 6.1%, P = 0.401).

COVID-19 vaccine deaths

Overall, 115 participants (8.3% of the total) declare that their family members have died from COVID-19 vaccines. The comparison between those who have and have not contracted COVID-19 is shown in Table 6, while the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated is shown in Table 7.

Table 6. Perception of deaths due to COVID-19 vaccines among family members according to previous COVID-19.

The difference in the frequency of perceived deaths from COVID-19 vaccines among family members in participants with and without previous COVID-19 does not reach statistical significance (7.9% vs 9.0%, P = 0.500).

Table 7. Perception of deaths due to COVID-19 vaccines between unvaccinated and vaccinated (full course and full course plus boosters).

The difference in the frequency of perceived deaths due to COVID-19 vaccines among family members according to the vaccination status does not reach statistical significance (8.7% vs 5.7%, P = 0.146).

Discussion

The results of this survey, which involved nearly 1,400 people, indicate that 4.9% believe they have had family members who have died from COVID-19, while 8.3% believe they have had family members who have died due to COVID-19 vaccines. The characteristics of the participants, as summarized in Table 1, clearly exclude any quantitative reference to the real Italian population, since the sample was largely made up of unvaccinated subjects (83.6%), who freely chose to answer a questionnaire on social channels. In this sample, the perception of deaths associated with COVID-19 seems on the other hand somewhat exaggerated. According to ISTAT, there are approximately 16.5 million households in Italy . Assuming one deceased per household, there would be a total of 16.5 million x 4.9% = 808,500 deceased. According to GIMBE, which refers to the official data of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, as for today the deceased would instead be 188,933, that is 4.28 times less. This excess ratio could be explained by assuming that each participant identified their family members by including families beyond the closest household. Another explanation could lie in concern about COVID-19, even if the pattern of answers to the specific question seems to exclude any significant concern. In any case, using the ratio of perceived to actual COVID-19 deaths to calculate COVID-19 vaccine-associated deaths would lead to a total of 319,976 COVID-19 vaccine-associated deaths. This figure should not be interpreted as a quantitative measurement of actual deaths associated with COVID-19 vaccines but as a measure of concern objectively present in the sample that participated in the survey.

Limitations of the study

The main limitation is the sample which was not meant to be representative of the general population. Even the Rasmussen Reports survey, carried out on a smaller sample than this one (1.078 vs 1.392), while introducing some precautions for the stratification of the respondents, did not use a sampling strategy such as to make the sample representative of the general population. Other limitations include the use of a platform that - while requiring authentication - does not guarantee the identity of the participant or even that everyone gives a single answer and, above all, advertising and distribution through social channels oriented towards critical thinking about COVID -19 and COVID-19 vaccines. This last aspect is likely the main reason for the low percentage of vaccinated participants (16.4% compared to a national percentage of vaccinated between 80% and 90%). On the other hand, the recovered seem to be over-represented in the sample (73.9%, compared to a national figure estimated at around 50%). In this regard, however, it must be said that the questionnaire did not include any definition of COVID-19 and therefore a percentage of healed higher than the official one is a plausible result that probably includes, for example, COVID-19 diagnosed with self-administered diagnostic tests/swabs.

Conclusions

This study conducted on social platforms and which included a non-representative self-selected sample of the general population reveals a somewhat amplified perception of deaths associated with COVID-19 and an even greater perception of deaths associated with COVID-19 vaccines. Despite all the potential confounding factors affecting the results, that prevent their extension to the general population, one cannot but conclude that there is widespread concern about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. The institutional bodies in charge of vaccine safety supervision and, more generally, the political decision-makers responsible for public health would therefore have the duty to undertake useful initiatives to dispel this concern, first of all by systematically analyzing the mortality data by vaccination status, and making the data publicly available for independent and third-party analysis, thereby ensuring a transparent public discussion among experts free from conflicts of interest.